Back when I only had 2 gig machines, and finally bought a 4 gig machine, I saw no difference in how fast it ran with the programs I used. So, I bought an identical machine with no RAM and took 2 gig out of the 4 gig machine. This way I had two computers set up exactly the same so I could use either one and they both worked the same.
It was only a couple of years later when I found a few programs did run better on 4 gigs, so upgraded both of those computers to 4 gigs each.
But I never saw a drastic difference until I got the Silver Yogi, it screamed like greasing lightning. And I realize it is more than just because it has more RAM, it has a faster processor and much faster Mobo.
As far as overclocking, that is something I never did. I may have tried it once on an old machine I rarely used to see what difference it made, and didn't see enough of a difference to make the machine run hotter than normal.
You never see them cutting back on the poly-TICK-ians payments!
The well is NOT DRY, else they couldn't afford to be sending billions overseas for border protection, while not doing anything here. As long as they have plenty of money for their pork barrel project, they had better leave our SS alone!
They should have never stolen from SS in the first place!
Someone needs to hold the government accountable for grand theft!
Excess Deaths
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Re: Excess Deaths
All I can say is that I am very pleased the Silver Yogi is exceeding your expectations. An increase in RAM will almost always increase performance because that memory has a direct line to the CPU. All other memory use different data buses and consequently are slower. You might not notice the difference given that the software is not always written to take advantage of new hardware, plus can you really tell the difference between a 2 GHz clock speed vs a 4 GHz clock speed? I doubt it. Regardless, memory is a key factor in determining system performance, but as you noted the CPU and chip set on the motherboard has a lot to do with it as well.
My current tower CPU runs around 3.9 GHz max unless it is over clocked. Then it can go up to a blazing 4.4 GHz clock speed. Can you really see the difference? Well in 99% of the cases the answer is no. But those 1% people are looking at games with finely tuned graphics and response times. They might see shadows and depth perception that our old eyes could not recognize if we saw it. From what I understand all processors can be overclocked, but doing so voids the Intel warranty. If I read it correctly, the warranty would be voided even on my processor that is designed to be over clocked. All Intel is doing in my case is making it easier to void their warranty.
You were an accountant once and you must know how budgets work. When you reach the limit, it doesn't matter how much money you have in other accounts. You are out of funds when you exceed what has been budgeted. In the case of the federal government those budget items are by and large financed through loans, or selling treasury bonds. Once all that borrowed money is used up, there is no more. The only way to get more is to increase the limit that can be borrowed. For some people in congress that limit seems to be an issue. As you implied, we can run this country very well without any deficit limits in force. We did exactly that for a couple hundred years. In any case, it is possible that we will not get our SSA check in the usual time frame. But, we WILL get the money due to us eventually.
Governor Mike Parson, the governor of Missouri, has on his desk a bill to sign which would freeze real estate taxes. It's unclear to me at this moment exactly when that would take place, but it would be wonderful if it applied to this year because this year the real estate taxes increased by more than twenty percent. And, since the Missouri legislature was in a generous mood the past month or so, they added a clause to that bill which would exempt Social Security income from Missouri state taxes. I never paid a state income tax on my SSA payments in Illinois. Missouri is lagging in that regard. There was a rumor floating around that they were also considering exempting seniors from paying any real estate taxes whatsoever. So far that is only a rumor.
My current tower CPU runs around 3.9 GHz max unless it is over clocked. Then it can go up to a blazing 4.4 GHz clock speed. Can you really see the difference? Well in 99% of the cases the answer is no. But those 1% people are looking at games with finely tuned graphics and response times. They might see shadows and depth perception that our old eyes could not recognize if we saw it. From what I understand all processors can be overclocked, but doing so voids the Intel warranty. If I read it correctly, the warranty would be voided even on my processor that is designed to be over clocked. All Intel is doing in my case is making it easier to void their warranty.
You were an accountant once and you must know how budgets work. When you reach the limit, it doesn't matter how much money you have in other accounts. You are out of funds when you exceed what has been budgeted. In the case of the federal government those budget items are by and large financed through loans, or selling treasury bonds. Once all that borrowed money is used up, there is no more. The only way to get more is to increase the limit that can be borrowed. For some people in congress that limit seems to be an issue. As you implied, we can run this country very well without any deficit limits in force. We did exactly that for a couple hundred years. In any case, it is possible that we will not get our SSA check in the usual time frame. But, we WILL get the money due to us eventually.
Governor Mike Parson, the governor of Missouri, has on his desk a bill to sign which would freeze real estate taxes. It's unclear to me at this moment exactly when that would take place, but it would be wonderful if it applied to this year because this year the real estate taxes increased by more than twenty percent. And, since the Missouri legislature was in a generous mood the past month or so, they added a clause to that bill which would exempt Social Security income from Missouri state taxes. I never paid a state income tax on my SSA payments in Illinois. Missouri is lagging in that regard. There was a rumor floating around that they were also considering exempting seniors from paying any real estate taxes whatsoever. So far that is only a rumor.
Re: Excess Deaths
Computers are getting so complicated, some day soon only AI will be able to create new and faster ones, hi hi.
Yes, I was an accountant for our florist and few other businesses as well.
So I do understand Departmental accounting and Budgets to work within quite well.
That being said, there are some things where you cannot set a Budget Limit on.
You can guess how much you might need for that operation or department, so you allocate enough from the main account for them, but you cannot place a Cap on some departments. You control what they spend monies on, but some things you have no control over at all. One example is the Fuel Budget for the boilers. You can up the budget by 3 to 5% per year, but then you hit a year where fuel jumps 20% and the money MUST be there to cover it, else you lose out big time with lost crops due to freezing.
Non-perishable Inventory is another area where you try to keep a tight budget, so you don't end up with too much in inventory.
However, sometimes a super deal comes along, and it is wise to buy up a certain product, even if it would take 5 years or longer to use it up. One example of that was Hydrofoam. It was a staple of our business, and a far cry better in both quality and usability than any competitors products, like Oasis who was stealing the market with low prices.
When we heard Hydrofoam was going to be discontinued. We bought out all they could make, and what they had in their warehouses. This gave us a 15 year supply, and we were technically out of it when we decided to close up shop.
But consider this, although we did have to store it, once Hydrofoam was gone, Oasis prices doubled, which made it higher than what we paid for the Hydrofoam. Over the next 5 years, Oasis double again, so our inventory became an asset to us for saving money on a major material we used daily.
I can see freezing real estate taxes at the current rate for seniors, but not cutting out completely, since we still have to pay for the services we are using. However, the biggest part of the taxes are for schools, and our kids are paying taxes for schools now that they are married and have a house and kids. Many schools have way too big a budget, and to make sure their budget doesn't get cut back, they make sure and spend to the limit every single year.
The same happens in some company departments as well. I saw it happen in companies I worked for too. It was for this reason they decided to have a separate department for consumable inventory, and they kept track of exactly how much stuff each department used on a week to week basis.
When I was doing houses down in the city of St. Loo, if we bought a property which had been vacant and boarded up for more than 5 years. If we were renovating it to get it back on the tax rolls, we didn't have to pay real estate tax on it until it was appraised and sold with the next years taxes now due, and this was placed on the new owners, not on the renovators.
It helped them to get some of the derelict properties they had foreclosed on and were holding in their coffers.
Many of them just got bulldozed down to vacant land, which then caused the taxes on new construction to be much higher.
Yes, I was an accountant for our florist and few other businesses as well.
So I do understand Departmental accounting and Budgets to work within quite well.
That being said, there are some things where you cannot set a Budget Limit on.
You can guess how much you might need for that operation or department, so you allocate enough from the main account for them, but you cannot place a Cap on some departments. You control what they spend monies on, but some things you have no control over at all. One example is the Fuel Budget for the boilers. You can up the budget by 3 to 5% per year, but then you hit a year where fuel jumps 20% and the money MUST be there to cover it, else you lose out big time with lost crops due to freezing.
Non-perishable Inventory is another area where you try to keep a tight budget, so you don't end up with too much in inventory.
However, sometimes a super deal comes along, and it is wise to buy up a certain product, even if it would take 5 years or longer to use it up. One example of that was Hydrofoam. It was a staple of our business, and a far cry better in both quality and usability than any competitors products, like Oasis who was stealing the market with low prices.
When we heard Hydrofoam was going to be discontinued. We bought out all they could make, and what they had in their warehouses. This gave us a 15 year supply, and we were technically out of it when we decided to close up shop.
But consider this, although we did have to store it, once Hydrofoam was gone, Oasis prices doubled, which made it higher than what we paid for the Hydrofoam. Over the next 5 years, Oasis double again, so our inventory became an asset to us for saving money on a major material we used daily.
I can see freezing real estate taxes at the current rate for seniors, but not cutting out completely, since we still have to pay for the services we are using. However, the biggest part of the taxes are for schools, and our kids are paying taxes for schools now that they are married and have a house and kids. Many schools have way too big a budget, and to make sure their budget doesn't get cut back, they make sure and spend to the limit every single year.
The same happens in some company departments as well. I saw it happen in companies I worked for too. It was for this reason they decided to have a separate department for consumable inventory, and they kept track of exactly how much stuff each department used on a week to week basis.
When I was doing houses down in the city of St. Loo, if we bought a property which had been vacant and boarded up for more than 5 years. If we were renovating it to get it back on the tax rolls, we didn't have to pay real estate tax on it until it was appraised and sold with the next years taxes now due, and this was placed on the new owners, not on the renovators.
It helped them to get some of the derelict properties they had foreclosed on and were holding in their coffers.
Many of them just got bulldozed down to vacant land, which then caused the taxes on new construction to be much higher.
Re: Excess Deaths
Truth is that AI has already taken over some jobs, and not only in technical fields. Programmers are using AI to speed up the development process for example, and at some point in the not too distant future those AI bots will be as smart as the programmer using them. That is when there will be no need for the human coders.
There is something called Game Theory which has little to do with the entertainment games we play on PC's. Game Theory deals with probable outcomes of situations given all the known factors. For example, there is a war going on in the Ukraine and the Russian government has threatened to use nuclear weapons. The question is how should we respond given that we are technically not part of the action? The answer depends on many factors and some good guesses about how the enemy might counter any response. There are in fact a limited number of things that could happen depending on how the participants play the "game." Some scenarios have better outcomes than others. This is the kind of problem that is made for Artificial Intelligence to analyze and predict.
As an accountant you know there is a general operating fund from which departments budgets are resourced. The example you gave of not being able to budget certain things is valid up to a point. Fuel to run the boilers to keep the hot houses hot is a very high priority for obvious reasons. Should that department's budgeted funds run out, the general operating fund kicks in to provide the additional money. The general operating fund is limited and can be depleted. In those cases it is still critical to the business's survival to keep the boilers burning. Thus the boiler fuel funding must come from the funds allocated to other less important departments. In other words, paying the bills need to be prioritized. It may be feasible to borrow money to cover the added expense, but that is an additional cost to running the business. Also, depending on their credit rating, loans may not even be available. If a company is running short on cash it could result in very few options. Take on the added debt to stay in business, or close down the shop.
Regarding my comments about SSA payments, they will be prioritized. The federal government will not close shop, but some of the departments might have to suspend operations for a while.
Regarding Missouri real estate taxes, I know just as much today as I did yesterday. Not much. The state of Missouri isn't much different than the federal government or a large corporation for that matter. If they lose income revenue, services must be cut or some loans will need to be taken. I'll take a guess at what is actually happening here. There was a ton of state aid given to all 50 of us by the folks in Washington so that we could better cope with the COVID pandemic. All states received that money but it was up to them individually how to best spend it. Some places, like Chicago, gave out cash to their citizens. A few states did the same thing. Most of the states just kept the money to do with what they please. That's what Missouri did. The result was a revenue surplus. When that surplus runs out, there will be only one other place for the great state of Missouri to obtain funds. I see this freeze in taxes as temporary until the surplus is used up. It would not hurt the state if they exempted seniors from paying real estate taxes, at least not in the short term. When the excess runs out we will be back to normal and the taxes will rise even quicker than they have been recently.
There is something called Game Theory which has little to do with the entertainment games we play on PC's. Game Theory deals with probable outcomes of situations given all the known factors. For example, there is a war going on in the Ukraine and the Russian government has threatened to use nuclear weapons. The question is how should we respond given that we are technically not part of the action? The answer depends on many factors and some good guesses about how the enemy might counter any response. There are in fact a limited number of things that could happen depending on how the participants play the "game." Some scenarios have better outcomes than others. This is the kind of problem that is made for Artificial Intelligence to analyze and predict.
As an accountant you know there is a general operating fund from which departments budgets are resourced. The example you gave of not being able to budget certain things is valid up to a point. Fuel to run the boilers to keep the hot houses hot is a very high priority for obvious reasons. Should that department's budgeted funds run out, the general operating fund kicks in to provide the additional money. The general operating fund is limited and can be depleted. In those cases it is still critical to the business's survival to keep the boilers burning. Thus the boiler fuel funding must come from the funds allocated to other less important departments. In other words, paying the bills need to be prioritized. It may be feasible to borrow money to cover the added expense, but that is an additional cost to running the business. Also, depending on their credit rating, loans may not even be available. If a company is running short on cash it could result in very few options. Take on the added debt to stay in business, or close down the shop.
Regarding my comments about SSA payments, they will be prioritized. The federal government will not close shop, but some of the departments might have to suspend operations for a while.
Regarding Missouri real estate taxes, I know just as much today as I did yesterday. Not much. The state of Missouri isn't much different than the federal government or a large corporation for that matter. If they lose income revenue, services must be cut or some loans will need to be taken. I'll take a guess at what is actually happening here. There was a ton of state aid given to all 50 of us by the folks in Washington so that we could better cope with the COVID pandemic. All states received that money but it was up to them individually how to best spend it. Some places, like Chicago, gave out cash to their citizens. A few states did the same thing. Most of the states just kept the money to do with what they please. That's what Missouri did. The result was a revenue surplus. When that surplus runs out, there will be only one other place for the great state of Missouri to obtain funds. I see this freeze in taxes as temporary until the surplus is used up. It would not hurt the state if they exempted seniors from paying real estate taxes, at least not in the short term. When the excess runs out we will be back to normal and the taxes will rise even quicker than they have been recently.
Re: Excess Deaths
When computers are smarter than us, that will be the demise of the human race.
They may even take the war games away from governments, hi hi.
SS had more money than it would ever need, that is, until the government stole it from them.
It seems taxes will always do one thing, and that is go up, until we have another revolution!
They may even take the war games away from governments, hi hi.
SS had more money than it would ever need, that is, until the government stole it from them.
It seems taxes will always do one thing, and that is go up, until we have another revolution!
Re: Excess Deaths
Revolutions bring on true hyperinflation. Juan told us about what happened in Mexico during their revolution. Trust me, you don't want to be around if that should ever happen. There's a lot of talk about regulating AI and its development, but this is too late to be talking about such things. The genie is out of the bottle and won't be put back. AI is here to stay for good or for evil, and the latest projections are that AI will be as smart as or smarter than us humans ...
You need to remember that the government owns the Social Security System. It's not ours, and we did not pay SSA taxes all those years to guarantee a retirement income. We bought insurance under Federal Insurance Contributions Act (FICA) which earned us credits toward entitlements we can claim at retirement age. You are correct to point out that it was apparently self-sustaining in the beginning. Saying it would continue to be that way indefinitely is speculation. I know you did research on the topic, but all you did was gather information that was valid and correct at that time. Things have changed. The government did not steal anything from the SSA. They did reapportion how their SSA funds were used. That's not to say they did not make any mistakes along the way, but they did not steal something that was theirs in the first place.According to futurist and engineer Ray Kurzweil, artificial intelligence will achieve human-level capability by 2030. This will be decided when AI is capable of passing a legitimate Turing test.
And, for what it's worth, the reapportionment was made because congress could not agree on a budget and certain political parties in congress refused to increase the debt limit. Thus they covered their rear ends with the idle SSA money. Sound familiar?
Re: Excess Deaths
Your probably right about a revolution causing hyperinflation.
I think a LOT of what they are currently calling AI isn't really AI at all.
Much like what they call 3-D is not really 3-D at all. Right now it is 360 degree rotation 2-D and nothing more.
It has been way too many years ago for me to remember what all was in my thesis about SS.
It started out as a Ponzi Scheme, but well developed so it would eventually work out, and it did, years ahead of schedule.
Each president has created new departments in government in order to pay those friends and relatives who scrubbed their backs. Most of these departments are still in existence with nothing much for them to do, except collect paychecks.
I think a LOT of what they are currently calling AI isn't really AI at all.
Much like what they call 3-D is not really 3-D at all. Right now it is 360 degree rotation 2-D and nothing more.
It has been way too many years ago for me to remember what all was in my thesis about SS.
It started out as a Ponzi Scheme, but well developed so it would eventually work out, and it did, years ahead of schedule.
Each president has created new departments in government in order to pay those friends and relatives who scrubbed their backs. Most of these departments are still in existence with nothing much for them to do, except collect paychecks.
Re: Excess Deaths
You are soooo right about the term 'AI' being used incorrectly in many cases. The software that is making headlines today is technically intelligent, but in limited ways. The original idea was to construct a language model which would allow people to have a natural conversation with a computer. Google was among th4e first companies to explore this idea, which made sense for them. Talking to their search engine and getting explanations a six year old kid could understand is a marvelous thing. The language model would need some intelligence to understand what you are really asking as opposed to simply looking up the occurrence of keywords in a massive database. That process is exactly what humans do. If I ask you about racing cars, for example, you would draw upon all your previous knowledge and exposure to racing to give me an answer. Likewise the language models need to be taught so that they could draw from their database to give you an intelligent reply. That process of extracting data in an intelligent fashion is how it all got to be called Artificial Intelligence in today's pop culture. While those language models are getting to be very intelligent, they lack all the rest of the things that make a human mind human; feelings and intuition for example. Today's language models are not sentient and not self-aware. Those folks making scary predictions about AI assume that those shortcomings will be overcome eventually. We are not there yet, but that is the point at which we should be afraid. Very afraid.
If memory serves me right social security was initially intended to provide a supplemental income for retired people and was inspired by the Great Depression FDR was trying to manage. The economic scene today is nothing like it was back in 1935, or 55, or 85 for that matter. There are way more retired people today, in terms of percentage, than there was back in the early days of SSA. Wages, and the taxes on them, have not kept up with inflation either. We are nearly 90 years into the Social Security program and I think it's reasonable that it be given some serious reconsideration to how it all works. The idea of providing retired folks with a continuing income should, in my opinion, remain sacred no matter how they revise the system.
If memory serves me right social security was initially intended to provide a supplemental income for retired people and was inspired by the Great Depression FDR was trying to manage. The economic scene today is nothing like it was back in 1935, or 55, or 85 for that matter. There are way more retired people today, in terms of percentage, than there was back in the early days of SSA. Wages, and the taxes on them, have not kept up with inflation either. We are nearly 90 years into the Social Security program and I think it's reasonable that it be given some serious reconsideration to how it all works. The idea of providing retired folks with a continuing income should, in my opinion, remain sacred no matter how they revise the system.
Re: Excess Deaths
Inflation during the Mexican Revolution (1910 - 1930) was a different thing from Inflation during the populistic regimes and the gradual return to sanity after 1970.
You may find it curious, but Mexican Monetary law dates from 1931, with modifications to it. We have had no gold or silver standard since, but have had fine metal coinage as part of the circulating coinage at metal value, that is, if you show up at ant mexican customs office when trying to enter the country with a stash of gold coins, those won't be considered as face value money, but as the current international price of the amount of gold.
Mexican monetary Law, Current, in English
During Mexican revolution, since coinage was monopolized by government and still under gold standard due to the 1905 monetary law, the rebel groups needed an exchange method to get provisions and ammunition. Both them and state governments minted coinage and printed bills to cover some of their expenses. Due to the turmoil at the time, out of the group jurisdiction, the bills were worthless. Those were called bilimbiques.
Bilimbiques article, in spanish
So far, what I've been reading about AI bots, is mostly about natural language synthesizing search engines. Software that not only searches requested information from large databases, but that it also gives it out using a language that may seem natural. Of course it has limitations on the size of the database and the synthesizing abilities. We've already seen those kind of bots on the automatic translation software for nearly two decades.
And about SS, I don't really know how it works up there, yet it was the base on which we have a social security system, that includes public health and a pension system. At one time it included housing, recreational and sport projects. We may talk about how it has evolved down here, suffice is to say that at the moment my future pension depends on an account that was opened when I began working and that has received a small percentage of may salaries and quotes from the companies I've been working for.
You may find it curious, but Mexican Monetary law dates from 1931, with modifications to it. We have had no gold or silver standard since, but have had fine metal coinage as part of the circulating coinage at metal value, that is, if you show up at ant mexican customs office when trying to enter the country with a stash of gold coins, those won't be considered as face value money, but as the current international price of the amount of gold.
Mexican monetary Law, Current, in English
During Mexican revolution, since coinage was monopolized by government and still under gold standard due to the 1905 monetary law, the rebel groups needed an exchange method to get provisions and ammunition. Both them and state governments minted coinage and printed bills to cover some of their expenses. Due to the turmoil at the time, out of the group jurisdiction, the bills were worthless. Those were called bilimbiques.
Bilimbiques article, in spanish
So far, what I've been reading about AI bots, is mostly about natural language synthesizing search engines. Software that not only searches requested information from large databases, but that it also gives it out using a language that may seem natural. Of course it has limitations on the size of the database and the synthesizing abilities. We've already seen those kind of bots on the automatic translation software for nearly two decades.
And about SS, I don't really know how it works up there, yet it was the base on which we have a social security system, that includes public health and a pension system. At one time it included housing, recreational and sport projects. We may talk about how it has evolved down here, suffice is to say that at the moment my future pension depends on an account that was opened when I began working and that has received a small percentage of may salaries and quotes from the companies I've been working for.
Re: Excess Deaths
I think inflation is the measure of buying power over a period of time. It really doesn't matter what is the cause of inflation. Certain political parties here in America point fingers at the present administration's economic policies and insist that is the cause of inflation. It certainly is possible for domestic policies to influence supply and demand. Revolutions are designed to uproot the economy and make things very unstable. I would call that mismanagement of economic policies to an extreme. The end results is the same no matter how inflation arises.
Mexican Monetary Law is interesting. We gave up the gold standard because the metal as a commodity was skyrocketing in price. If the dollar were still based on that market value of the metal, the dollar would be near worthless today. They did try to hold a double standard at first. The currency exchange rate was based on a fixed $35/oz basis, but it became impractical to adhere to that standard when the gold in the vaults of foreign central banks was worth 100-500 times that monetary standard. So, now, our dollar is worth what the world thinks it should be worth with no other standard but our good will and stable economy to back it.
I didn't realize there was anything like social security in Mexico, but I do know several countries of the world effectively have a minimum income standard for all it's citizens. Replacing our social security and healthcare with some kind of minimum income that could maintain a fair standard of living is a great idea. In fact I think something akin to that is already happening in Scandinavian countries. Unfortunately, our political system isn't ready to make that kind of change, even if it is possible to do so.
Mexican Monetary Law is interesting. We gave up the gold standard because the metal as a commodity was skyrocketing in price. If the dollar were still based on that market value of the metal, the dollar would be near worthless today. They did try to hold a double standard at first. The currency exchange rate was based on a fixed $35/oz basis, but it became impractical to adhere to that standard when the gold in the vaults of foreign central banks was worth 100-500 times that monetary standard. So, now, our dollar is worth what the world thinks it should be worth with no other standard but our good will and stable economy to back it.
I didn't realize there was anything like social security in Mexico, but I do know several countries of the world effectively have a minimum income standard for all it's citizens. Replacing our social security and healthcare with some kind of minimum income that could maintain a fair standard of living is a great idea. In fact I think something akin to that is already happening in Scandinavian countries. Unfortunately, our political system isn't ready to make that kind of change, even if it is possible to do so.
Re: Excess Deaths
I remember the first computers had a program you could ask questions to, but it never knew the answers, hi hi.
Population growth exceeded the expected, which is why SS wound up with so much more excess.
But they also figured that all these folks would some day retire.
But around 1972 they reached the point where no one was getting back more than they put in, or something like that.
In any case, SS became balanced on that date in 1972, so that income was greater than payouts to those who didn't contribute.
Too long ago for me to remember all the details. But I do remember that there was enough that everyone could retire and not use up the monies that were in SS.
My late wife's sisters kids moved to Israel. They had to serve in the military for four years, for he and his wife to gain citizenship.
But they have a system like SS, where part of their income from working is paid into the system.
When they reach 68 years of age, they can start drawing their pension, and it is a lot more than we get on ours here.
Naturally, some folks who are ill and can no longer work, can draw on their pension early.
But that usually doesn't upset the apple cart, because many pass away before reaching retirement age.
The main thing that is different from ours is for married couples.
Here, each person draws their own SS check, there, the same way, unless one dies, then the widow or widower collects on both, at a slightly lower percentage though.
Population growth exceeded the expected, which is why SS wound up with so much more excess.
But they also figured that all these folks would some day retire.
But around 1972 they reached the point where no one was getting back more than they put in, or something like that.
In any case, SS became balanced on that date in 1972, so that income was greater than payouts to those who didn't contribute.
Too long ago for me to remember all the details. But I do remember that there was enough that everyone could retire and not use up the monies that were in SS.
My late wife's sisters kids moved to Israel. They had to serve in the military for four years, for he and his wife to gain citizenship.
But they have a system like SS, where part of their income from working is paid into the system.
When they reach 68 years of age, they can start drawing their pension, and it is a lot more than we get on ours here.
Naturally, some folks who are ill and can no longer work, can draw on their pension early.
But that usually doesn't upset the apple cart, because many pass away before reaching retirement age.
The main thing that is different from ours is for married couples.
Here, each person draws their own SS check, there, the same way, unless one dies, then the widow or widower collects on both, at a slightly lower percentage though.
Re: Excess Deaths
It has been a long while since I had to decide how to draw on my Social Security benefits. I recall setting it up with an HR person at Motorola. I could be wrong because my memory isn't what it used to be, but I believe that when one of us dies the surviving spouse collects their own benefit as usual and 50% of what the other spouse was getting. I also have a vague memory of a couple other ways to distribute the money, but what we chose gave us the maximum benefits while we were still alive. And, of course, we only got all that if we didn't start drawing until age 65. Actually, I think it was 65 and a few months because they were raising the retirement age at the time.
Originally under the FDR administration in the mid 30's, Social Security was created as self-funded. You might be right about the projections back then suggesting that could go on forever. But economic and demographic climates changed. I looked it up and found that Lyndon Johnson as president submitted his 1968 budget with Social Security (and all other government trust funds) moved into it. That was a departure from the original self-funded concept. Johnson had to tap into the SSA reserves due to the opposition he ran into regarding debt limits. Bringing the trust funds into general operations added cash and thus increasing the debt limit could be deferred. However, since certain political parties were (and still are) so obstinate about government spending and debt limits all the way back to 1968, we are today faced with the reality of a budgeted Social Security benefit being reduced or eliminated.
And, just in case you are interested, here is some additional history directly from the Social Security people: https://www.ssa.gov/history/genrev.html
Originally under the FDR administration in the mid 30's, Social Security was created as self-funded. You might be right about the projections back then suggesting that could go on forever. But economic and demographic climates changed. I looked it up and found that Lyndon Johnson as president submitted his 1968 budget with Social Security (and all other government trust funds) moved into it. That was a departure from the original self-funded concept. Johnson had to tap into the SSA reserves due to the opposition he ran into regarding debt limits. Bringing the trust funds into general operations added cash and thus increasing the debt limit could be deferred. However, since certain political parties were (and still are) so obstinate about government spending and debt limits all the way back to 1968, we are today faced with the reality of a budgeted Social Security benefit being reduced or eliminated.
And, just in case you are interested, here is some additional history directly from the Social Security people: https://www.ssa.gov/history/genrev.html
Re: Excess Deaths
Dang Yogi - That almost sounds like it came from Part One of my Thesis on Social Security, with very few minor changes.
They didn't mention the period of time it became solvent 2 to 40 years ahead of schedule, and sorta modified the results a little bit to fit the story better.
But, as you can see, once they crossed the break-even point, they were never in debt, and after another date, there would be no way it could become unsolvent.
It looks to me like the charts posted at the bottom of that article shows they were doing quite well, even with the added burdens to SS payouts.
They didn't mention the period of time it became solvent 2 to 40 years ahead of schedule, and sorta modified the results a little bit to fit the story better.
But, as you can see, once they crossed the break-even point, they were never in debt, and after another date, there would be no way it could become unsolvent.
It looks to me like the charts posted at the bottom of that article shows they were doing quite well, even with the added burdens to SS payouts.
Re: Excess Deaths
Are you suggesting the Social Security System plagiarized your thesis paper? If so all you have to do is come up with the original and get them to pay you royalties. LOL
Good luck with THAT.
I think the basic operation of the Social Security fund has not changed over the years. What did change is how the surplus is being used. As a stand alone program it would likely last forever, as you predicted. But, as I found out the entire system was put into the federal budget as a line item. By doing that the surplus, if any, was apportioned to general revenues. They are still solvent, for a couple more years, but effectively have no reserve fund on which to draw for future benefit payouts. Those payouts today are being funded by the working class and the FICA taxes they are paying. When the robot revolution happens, very few people will be working and no FICA will be collected. Then what? There are no reserves to carry the system over.
Good luck with THAT.
I think the basic operation of the Social Security fund has not changed over the years. What did change is how the surplus is being used. As a stand alone program it would likely last forever, as you predicted. But, as I found out the entire system was put into the federal budget as a line item. By doing that the surplus, if any, was apportioned to general revenues. They are still solvent, for a couple more years, but effectively have no reserve fund on which to draw for future benefit payouts. Those payouts today are being funded by the working class and the FICA taxes they are paying. When the robot revolution happens, very few people will be working and no FICA will be collected. Then what? There are no reserves to carry the system over.
Re: Excess Deaths
The way SS was set up, if they did decide to end the funding of same, and perhaps start over with something else. SS had enough funds to pay out all of those who paid in, and in full as required. And when the last person who paid in passes away, then the excess would be rolled over to whatever takes it place. But that was before the Fed cobbed all the money.
When SS first started, they didn't pay out anything for like 5 to 7 years, in order to have the funds to cover those who were paying in what they were due, even though they had not paid in that much yet. This was the period of time it worked like a Ponzi Scheme, those currently working and paying it were paying those who didn't pay in enough after the system was started.
But those retirees who came before SS was started, now they were paid by another program the government started as a stop-gap measure so SS could in fact become solvent, which they did 4 years earlier than projected.
The Baby Boomer generation is who fueled SS big time, and by the time they retired, they would never get back more than they put in, which is one thing that caused such an excess. Wars are designed to keep SS or the government from having to pay out funds that may or may not have been generated by those who were sent to war. You don't pay SS while in the service.
So, if you reupped for another 4 year term or more, and then retired, you would not have built up enough in SS to get paid what you should be paid. Since how much you get is based on how much you paid in.
This is one of the reasons Trump wanted to get the minimum SS payment moved up to 1,200 bucks, mainly to help our vets.
When SS first started, they didn't pay out anything for like 5 to 7 years, in order to have the funds to cover those who were paying in what they were due, even though they had not paid in that much yet. This was the period of time it worked like a Ponzi Scheme, those currently working and paying it were paying those who didn't pay in enough after the system was started.
But those retirees who came before SS was started, now they were paid by another program the government started as a stop-gap measure so SS could in fact become solvent, which they did 4 years earlier than projected.
The Baby Boomer generation is who fueled SS big time, and by the time they retired, they would never get back more than they put in, which is one thing that caused such an excess. Wars are designed to keep SS or the government from having to pay out funds that may or may not have been generated by those who were sent to war. You don't pay SS while in the service.
So, if you reupped for another 4 year term or more, and then retired, you would not have built up enough in SS to get paid what you should be paid. Since how much you get is based on how much you paid in.
This is one of the reasons Trump wanted to get the minimum SS payment moved up to 1,200 bucks, mainly to help our vets.
Re: Excess Deaths
The military has it's own retirement system. Stay enlisted for twenty years and you get the military retirement benefit. If you also worked as a civilian and paid into FICA, then you are entitled to that as well. FICA payouts are determined by the number of quarters worked and the amount you paid in taxes. Trump's wild idea of paying a $1200 minimum SS benefit had no funding to support it, and neither Democrats nor Republicans wanted to upgrade the system. There was no money to do it. Trump was simply gaslighting the seniors to try and gain their favor.
I can't dispute your rendition of the history behind the Social Security System. But it is indeed history. Today in the year 2023 nothing remotely resembles the economy of the 1930's. Social Security is solvent today because congress enacted a funding bill tied to the federal budget. That funding runs out in 2025. If the Social Security trust fund remained independent as it was initially, then there would likely not be a problem of funding it today. But, you see, the federal government was running out of budget money in 1968 and they absorbed the SSA trust fund into the general operating fund. That had to be done because congress, mainly the fiscal conservative Republicans, refused to raise taxes or extend the debt limit. The government had to be funded regardless, so Johnson did the most practical thing by re apportioning the idle Social Security monies.
That same kind of history is reoccurring in the federal budget discussions in congress today. Social Security is once again targeted to be the salvation for the fiscal conservatives. This time, however, they don't want to just move funds around. They want to eliminate, or reduce significantly, Medicare, Medicaid, and Social Security benefits. Lovely folks, don't you think?
I can't dispute your rendition of the history behind the Social Security System. But it is indeed history. Today in the year 2023 nothing remotely resembles the economy of the 1930's. Social Security is solvent today because congress enacted a funding bill tied to the federal budget. That funding runs out in 2025. If the Social Security trust fund remained independent as it was initially, then there would likely not be a problem of funding it today. But, you see, the federal government was running out of budget money in 1968 and they absorbed the SSA trust fund into the general operating fund. That had to be done because congress, mainly the fiscal conservative Republicans, refused to raise taxes or extend the debt limit. The government had to be funded regardless, so Johnson did the most practical thing by re apportioning the idle Social Security monies.
That same kind of history is reoccurring in the federal budget discussions in congress today. Social Security is once again targeted to be the salvation for the fiscal conservatives. This time, however, they don't want to just move funds around. They want to eliminate, or reduce significantly, Medicare, Medicaid, and Social Security benefits. Lovely folks, don't you think?
Re: Excess Deaths
In a nutshell, the government needs to quit wasting all the money they waste.
Adding taxes and raising the debt ceiling is the demise of the USA, coming soon!
Adding taxes and raising the debt ceiling is the demise of the USA, coming soon!
Re: Excess Deaths
There are a lot of people sitting in congress today who would love to see the US economy collapse and celebrate the ensuing chaos. The people who elected those traitors should all be deported to some place like Russia so that they can experience first hand what they are wishing for.
Re: Excess Deaths
Yeah, and 90% of them are on the blue side of the fence.
Re: Excess Deaths
I don't know of any "blue side" people who incited an insurrection and attempted a coup. But, I have heard it was quite patriotic of those who did. 